As 2026 began, Taiwan’s leadership responded to a large-scale Chinese military exercise with a firm public pledge to protect the island’s democratic institutions and territorial integrity. President Lai Ching-te used his New Year address to declare that Taiwan will steadfastly defend national sovereignty and urged citizens to show the resolve to defend themselves as the international community watches.
The drills, announced by Beijing as Justice Mission 2025 and conducted in the days before Lai’s speech, marked a tense start to the year. Chinese forces launched dozens of rockets and deployed large numbers of warships and aircraft around Taiwan, with some reports describing more than 200 warplanes and multiple missile launches, prompting immediate operational and political responses in Taipei and abroad.
Scope and nature of the Chinese drills
Beijing described the exercises as Justice Mission 2025 and framed them as measures to deter foreign intervention and counter what it called provocations. The timing, in the run-up to New Year addresses from both Xi Jinping and Lai Ching-te, intensified scrutiny of Chinese intentions and messaging across the region.
Open-source reporting and official statements indicated the drills involved dozens of rocket launches as well as extensive naval and air deployments. Some accounts suggested more than 200 warplanes took part and multiple missiles were launched, signalling an unusually large, integrated live-fire operation around the island.
The scale and composition of the exercises underscored Beijing’s ability to mount sustained, multi-domain operations near Taiwan and to use such shows of force for strategic signalling. Chinese authorities said the drills were intended to dissuade outside interference and to demonstrate resolve regarding reunification, a theme reiterated by Xi in his New Year address.
Immediate operational impacts on Taiwan
The drills had concrete, short-term effects on daily life and military operations in Taiwan. Several commercial flights were cancelled as airspace restrictions and heightened alerts were implemented, disrupting travel and logistics around the main island.
Taiwanese authorities moved to increase military alert levels and deployed their own forces in response. The island’s armed services scrambled assets to monitor and, where necessary, intercept incursions, demonstrating readiness while avoiding direct escalation.
Beyond logistics and deployments, the exercises highlighted vulnerabilities that Taipei says must be addressed through improved detection, interception and civil resilience measures. Officials emphasized that the drills tested both military preparedness and the capacity of civilian systems to withstand pressure.
Lai Ching-te’s New Year message and the defense budget proposal
In his New Year address on January 1, 2026, President Lai vowed to steadfastly defend national sovereignty and called on Taiwanese citizens to demonstrate the resolve to defend themselves. He framed defense not just as a military task but as a whole-of-society responsibility.
To translate words into capability, Lai proposed an eight-year special defense budget covering 2026 to 2033, worth roughly NT$ and estimated at about US$40 billion, aimed at accelerating weapons procurement and enhancing deterrence. The package prioritizes long-term investments to field more capable systems faster.
Lai also reiterated a target to raise defense spending toward 5 percent of GDP, viewing it as a benchmark for credible deterrence. The proposal is intended to strengthen conventional defenses while building resilience across society and government institutions.
Focus on air defenses and the Taiwan Dome concept
One central pillar of Taipei’s defense modernization is the Taiwan Dome concept, which emphasizes layered, high-level detection and interception capabilities to protect the island from aerial and missile threats. Taipei aims to integrate sensors, interceptors and command systems to create a more resilient air-defense umbrella.
The special defense budget proposal highlights procurement priorities consistent with Taiwan Dome, including advanced radars, interceptors, and supporting command-and-control systems. Officials argue that enhanced air defenses will reduce vulnerability to large-scale drills and improve deterrence credibility.
Investments will also focus on force survivability and distributed systems to complicate any adversary’s targeting calculus. Taipei insists that better detection and interception capabilities are essential to protect civilians and maintain operational freedom under pressure.
Role of recent US arms sales and external support
Observers and officials linked the Chinese drills to recent US arms packages to Taiwan, noted at roughly US$11 billion, which included missiles, drones, artillery and software. Beijing has repeatedly objected to such transfers, and the drills were widely seen as a signal of anger and resolve.
Western and regional partners publicly expressed concern over the drills. The European Commission, the United Kingdom, Japan and the United States all issued statements condemning destabilizing actions near Taiwan and urging restraint, reflecting broader international interest in regional security.
Taipei has sought to deepen defense cooperation and access to advanced systems while stressing the need for partner support that enhances deterrence without provoking uncontrolled escalation. The recent arms package was cited by both Taipei and Beijing as a catalyst for the current tense environment.
Domestic politics and hurdles to funding
Despite presidential support for a substantial defense push, Lai faces political obstacles at home. An opposition-controlled legislature and lingering political deadlock complicate the path for his special budget and other defense measures, creating uncertainty over funding timelines.
Late in 2025, opposition lawmakers filed impeachment motions against members of the administration, adding to a fraught political environment. These developments could slow or reshape Taipei’s procurement plans and the proposed climb to a 5 percent defense spending target.
Government officials and proponents of the budget argue that national survival transcends partisan differences, urging lawmakers to act in the name of resilience. Critics caution against rushed expenditures and call for oversight and transparency in long-term procurement commitments.
Cross-strait rhetoric and prospects for dialogue
Amid the tensions, President Lai reiterated Taiwan’s openness to exchanges and cooperation with China on an equal and dignified basis, but he conditioned dialogue on Beijing’s respect for Taiwan’s democratic system and the continued existence of the Republic of China. That stance attempts to balance deterrence with a readiness for dialogue under clear terms.
On the Chinese side, Xi Jinping used his televised New Year remarks to reaffirm a determination to pursue reunification, calling it an unstoppable trend. Coupled with the live-fire drills, that rhetoric affirmed Beijing’s long-standing red lines and strategic goals.
The interplay of firm rhetoric, military signalling and conditional openness to talks creates a narrow corridor for diplomacy. Any future engagement will likely depend on mutual confidence-building measures and tangible shifts in behaviour, which remain distant given current dynamics.
As Taiwan confronts the immediate aftershocks of Justice Mission 2025 and prepares for a potentially prolonged period of heightened tension, policymakers in Taipei are pushing for stronger defenses while keeping a guarded door open for dialogue. The coming months will test the island’s ability to translate pledges into capability amid political and fiscal constraints.
The international community’s response, domestic political calculus and Beijing’s strategic choices will determine whether the situation stabilizes or escalates. For now, Taiwan’s vow to defend sovereignty remains central to its posture as it navigates a volatile regional security environment.
